Thursday, September 29, 2011

Football: Week Two and Three Results

After roaring out of the gate in week one, the next two weeks saw my teams come back down to earth. Injuries are really hitting hard, after losing Jamal Charles on two teams, Kenny Britt on two teams, and Aaron Hernandez on two teams, I'm scrambling to fill those slots. I’m still ahead of the game, but spiraling downward.

Overall Record: 13-8-1
Week 2 Record: 4-3
Week 3 Record: 3-4

Team by team:

The Brooklyn Lions 146
What’s a PSD? 121

The Brooklyn Lions 89
The Connecticut Muffins 118

Week two went well, week three my guys didn’t do much. The big news here was losing Kenny Britt for the year in week three, but with Dez Bryant and Vincent Jackson, I should still be okay at WR. As I knew when I drafted Rivers and Jackson, the SD offense will have a big impact on my results. I don't expect week three will be one of my lowest point totals of the year.


Suh Kon This 99
NY Crushers 106

Suh Kon This 82
Yoshi da Yoshi P 142

Okay, this team is in real trouble. After losing Jamal Charles for the year in week two, I basically have no starting running back and two underperforming receivers in Dez Bryant and Hakeem Nicks. If they can turn it around, I could be okay. I might also have to trade one of them for a decent RB, unless Jonathan Stewart becomes the lead back in Carolina. I have to cobble together a backfield with Thomas Jones and Danny Woodhead as the only other options. Not good.


Bet On Backs 116
Stewies World Domination 133

Bet On Backs 63
NJ Huskies 71

Again, a total downward spiral. Using the first pick on Chris Johnson looks like a mistake at this point, as defenses are taking him out of the game. Here, again, Kenny Britt going down for the season hurts, even though I didn’t own him. Now defenses can really focus on CJ2K. If Nicks can’t turn it around soon, he’ll also be a bust. Week four should be a bounceback week.


Megatron & Bumblebee 145
$$Cash Flow Posse$$ 106

Megatron & Bumblebee 78
Soldiers of Fortune 117

Brady is proving to be worth the first round pick, but I ran into some trouble with my RB situation in week three, having no viable second starter when Beanie Wells was deactivated because of his hamstring. I expect to bounce back in week four.

Bring Out The Best 258
_chise 165

Bring Out The Best 206
Suck For Luck 137

This team still is performing better than it actually is. Alex Smith is my only QB, and who knows how long he’ll even be that. A huge performance from VJax helped in week two, and a terrible opponent saved me in week three. I don’t expect this team to keep rolling, but they stumbled to a first place finish last year, so...


Alligators Eating Swans 166
Shea Stadium Jets 215

Alligators Eating Swans 230
Rolling Along 227

After losing Jamal Charles in week two, the team bounced back in week three for a close win. My receivers haven’t been good, which is about what I expected, and losing Manningham for the week in week three left me feeling like there was no shot at a win. But decent scoring from the rest of my squad put me on top. It also looks like Mike Tolbert is losing too many carries to Ryan Matthews. Probably looking at a mediocre team in the long run.


Yeezy Taught Me 276
Team Martin 272

Yeezy Taught Me 230
We Need A Medic 216

A great start for this team, and we expect to keep winning with it, despite the loss of Kenny Britt and the worthlessness of DeAngelo Williams. Calving Johnson has been great and VJax had a huge week two. We've been killing it on the waiver wire, adding 2-3 starting LB in the last two weeks. Our defense is shaping up and Chad Henne has fallen back to earth after a big week one. This looks like a playoff team, but time will tell.


Outlook:

Not nearly as positive after weeks two and three. There are still a few teams that seem like they could finish in the money. I’ve also come to the realization that I’m not drafting the rest of the $1000 worth of teams, and the finance learning portion of this experiment has come to a standstill. It’s like learning to play an instrument or speak a language. It feels overwhelming and if I’m not practicing it every day, it feels like I’ll never actually get anywhere with it. We’ll see if I can dig in and get that rolling now that my teams are all set for week four.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Football: Week One Results and Expectations

I still have about 2-3 more teams to purchase to reach the $1000 mark, which is really going to make managing this a handful. But so far, with seven teams, things are looking up for football after week one.

Week 1 Record: 6-1-1
Overall Record: 6-1-1

Quick Rundown:

The Brooklyn Lions 117.10 (1-0)
Team Pretty 90.96
I really like the team I was playing against and thought there was a chance I’d go down. But big games from Ray Rice (who looked like the #1 RB this week) and Philip Rivers (who I originally hated drafting) carried me to victory. Four teams in the league outscored me, so I’m not the to dog. Starting Cleveland’s defense was a mistake, and Vincent Jackson didn’t do anything, so there’s room to improve.

Megatron and Bumblebee 139.18 (1-0)
The Village Idiots 79.08
That’s almost double. Facing Mike Vick had me scared, but Tom Brady proved once again that he is worthy of a top ten pick. My running back crop looks weak at this point, DeAngelo Williams did nothing. My kicker didn’t even play and still only one team outscored me, so I’m looking good.

Bet On Backs 96 (0-0-1)
Red Mosquitos 96
A tie! A tie! There’s never ties in fantasy football. No player on my team really came through this week, leaving hope for improvement. Matt Ryan and Chris Johnson both stank it up. And my Peyton Manning gamble looks dumb now that he’s just had another surgery. 6 teams outscored me, but I don’t expect to be this bad every week.

Suh Kon This 79 (0-1)
Coach 109
This is the team I probably ruined in the draft. Knowing that you HAVE to start two running backs, I took three receivers after taking Jamal Charles. My second starting running back is little Danny Woodhead. Not. Good. This team looks like they’re in trouble.

My three lifetime keeper league teams all won this week.

Alligators Eating Swans 256.8 (1-0)
We Want Thor! 205.1
Tony Romo and Brian Urlacher were the stars. Jamal Charles was good, Arian Foster was hurt, Shonne Green sucked, Mike Tolbert was on my bench. I like this team.


Bring On The Best 199.6 (1-0)
Craptastic 160.7
His team was indeed craptastic. Big game from Mike Tolbert and nothing from Vincent Jackson or Dwayne Bowe were the stories here. This team is paper thin.

Yeezy Taught Me 258.3 (1-0)
Shreveport Steamer 159.4
That’s an ass-whooping. Our WR first strategy worked out, as Calvin Johnson and Kenny Britt had big games. And Chad Henne! Lots of room to get better on defense, but heading in the right direction.

Expectations:
So far, so good this season. By default Football is way ahead of finance in expectations (but also way ahead in risk), because I haven’t put any of the $1000 into the market yet. I barely know anything more than I did when I started this. It’s not looking good for finance. It’s just too boring. Or hard. If I’m really going to wait until I understand how to evaluate a company, it could be a loooong wait.

With a few more teams to draft this week and next, knowing injuries and seeing how much players move up and down draft boards will be interesting. Will Chad Henne be a top ten pick!? Will Ray Rice go #1? We’ll see.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Finance: Lesson 1, Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

The lessons start by introducing you to the concept of “Fundamental Analysis,” the goal of which is to help you determine if a company is overvalued or undervalued in the marketplace. It briefly introduces several different criteria you might want to look at, including:

Fair market values of assets & liabilities (found on balance sheets, amount of cash on hand, and short term & long term debt)

Income & expenses (found on the company’s income statement, this is the amount of revenue and the cost incurred to generate that revenue, the difference is the overall profit or loss)

Cash flow statement (how much cash came in during an accounting period, from operations, investments or loans, and where cash went -- to meet expenses, pay dividends or pay off debt)

It’s suggested that you can use this information to determine the future value and earnings of a company and whether or not it’s undervalued in the marketplace. Already I’m feeling like I’m probably not going to be able to use any of this, even though this is starting with what’s probably the most basic information. The Fidelity video teacher doesn't answer questions, nor does she give any real world examples.

To make sure I can at least find these things, I’ll look at ZAP, an electric car company of some sort in which I already own 3500 shares (purchased two years ago without knowing anything about the company, based on the advice of a friend). Their information was easy enough to find on fidelity. Finding this information, which I have no idea what to do with makes me feel somewhat successful.

The next FA section moves on to tell you “why & when” you might want to use fundamental analysis, assuming that you can understand it. You can potentially determine:

Does a company’s total market value reflect the value of it’s components? To do this, you can theoretically isolate the assets on the balance sheet and assess the value of its components (current assets = cash, receivables, inventory and long-term investments). Then add up the assets and subtract liabilities for the total value of the company.

"If you evaluate the present value of stock to be $40, but the market value to be $30, you would consider buying the stock, as it may be undervalued." It seems like this view is too simplistic to truly yield an advantage in the market. So I looked at Zap’s balance sheet to try and do this. If the current assets for ZAAP are at $5,773,000 and their current liabilities are $3,193,000, then that makes the present value of ZAAP $2,587,000. Then you divide that by the number of outstanding shares (215,356,000) and you find out that the value of one share of stock is: $.01.

So either I’m doing this wrong (which is a strong possibility), or ZAAP is a piece of shit, based just on this. Maybe it just means that the present value doesn’t reflect what the market anticipates the future value will be. Apparently watching five minutes of video isn’t sufficient to give me even a modest grasp of any concept. Luckily there are seven more sections on Fundamental Analysis.

Idiot Lessons (things I had to look up because I can’t understand anything else before I know these basic things):

Earnings vs. Revenue - Revenue is the gross amount received before deductions. Earnings is revenues less expenses.

Market Capitalization - The total market value of a company’s outstanding stock multiplied by the current market price of one share.

I don't feel very smart.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

CBS $100 Draft: Bet On Backs

I named this team before I saw which pick I had. The original plan was to take two top RB with my first two picks and see how that played out, maybe even take three top RB to fill the WR/RB offense position. In a non-PPR league, WR become a little less valuable, so going RB early makes more sense. And I’ve found that you can still get a pretty good #1 or #2 receiver a bit further down in drafts, same with QB.

But when I saw I had the #1 pick, I considered changing my strategy. If Vick stays healthy and repeats his performance, is he the most valuable player in football? Probably. And if not, who do you take? Chris Johnson coming off a holdout, on a mediocre Tennessee offense? Arian Foster and his MRI? Adrian Peterson on a potentially terrible MIN offense that has to face the Packers and Lions twice? Every option seems risky. You don’t want to fuck up the #1 pick, but really, how can you lose?

I decided to go with Chris Johnson and hope that he comes out guns blazing. The Titans built their offense around him and he’s shooting for 2000 yards. Sounds good to me. Plus, he’s fun to own and without knowing a ton. My hope is that I get the 1-5 pick in another draft and get a chance to take Vick.

For my second and third picks, I planned to go RB, RB, but there wasn’t a third RB there that I really wanted. I took a bit of a chance drafting Felix Jones, who may have been there when it got back to me, but I have a good feeling about him this year. I grabbed Hakeen Nicks as well, to ensure I got a top 10 WR.

My plan for picks 4 and 5 were to grab another WR and a QB. I was targeting Matt Ryan, but Peyton Manning was there as well. So what to do, is Peyton coming back this season? When do you draft him? So I took Matt Ryan. And Peyton Manning.

Next round I was hoping Kenny Britt would fall, but he went the pick before mine. So with 6 and 7 I totally blew my “no players with same bye weeks” plan, drafting Stevie Johnson and Benjarvis-Green Ellis.

The wheels sort of fell off after this. In panic mode, I took two RB with James Starks and Pierre Thomas to cover my bye weeks and hope Starks breaks out. I took two potential breakout candidates in Emmanuel Sanders and Jordy Nelson, who could also do absolutely nothing. I continued my week 7 bye-week disaster by taking Aaron Hernandez as my TE. Then I logged off--after taking THE LIONS DEFENSE.



Best get: Peyton Manning in round five. If he comes back before the end of the season, he’ll be motivated and hopefully put up big numbers.

Worst pick: Peyton Manning in round five. I took a bench player when I really still needed another WR. And I hate the Green-Ellis pick, but I said bet on backs, so I am.

Just missed: Kenny Britt. If he had been there, I would have gone Britt and Johnson, to complete my 3 WR’s with Nicks. Instead, I panicked and took Johnson and Green-Ellis. Dumb.

Team Outlook: I don’t like it. I have a handful of potential breakout players as my reserves. If they don’t break out and my players go down or won’t produce, I’ll be left scrambling. If Peyton comes back and Stevie doesn’t turn out to be a bust, I could make a run at it.

Level of team hatred: 60%. Through my first four picks I was pretty happy. My plan of going RB-RB-WR-QB-WR was on track until Peyton Manning fell. I wanted to grab Felix Jones and I had to reach for him. I was hoping Matt Ryan made it to me in round four and he did. But how do you pass on Manning in round five? Then I took Benjarvis Green-Ellis which makes me puke. And taking two week 7 bye-week WR seriously hampered my ability to take another WR of my choice, since some of them had the same bye.

Football vs. Finance Outlook: I started the Fidelity video lessons today. No money in the market for this challenge yet, although the markets dropped again today. It seems the longer I wait, the better (or worse) it gets. As for football, I’m starting to feel like my knowledge would be more helpful in a much deeper league, where you have to really know the third tier and breakout candidate-players. Time will tell.

Finance Kickoff: Going Back To Business School

On my resume, under education, I list a BBA from the University of Michigan because I “attended” undergrad business school. Which is different from studying business. That would imply that I actually applied myself in an effort to learn as much as I could about economics, accounting, financial markets, etc. In reality, I focused more on how to keep my GPA up and graduate while doing as little work as possible. Which perhaps contributed to my job at graduation--house painter. So to now go back and learn about financial markets is going to be like starting from scratch.

My approach is to attend the Fidelity “Trading Knowledge Center," where a series of videos will teach me the meaning of terms like equity and leverage.



The first section in their knowledge center is “TOOLS,” which teaches you about the trading options available through Fidelity. That should be further down the list, since I likely can’t take advantage of any tools before I understand more about the market. So my first class will be “ANALYZE,” which theoretically will teach me about “technical and fundamental analysis.”

In addition to this, I’ll aim to read 1-2 books on the subject.

As I move through the process, I’ll try to post entries in which I’ll do several things:

Summarize what the section or book is talking about and explain it in a way that I, and hopefully someone as dumb as me, can understand.

Apply concepts to a real life company or stock, so that I can prove to myself that I actually understand it before pouring money in.

Evaluate how valuable the lesson is. Meaning, is this something that will actually be useful in investing or give me some sort of insight.

Include “idiot lessons.” These are very basic terms or concepts that I had to look up because Fidelity incorrectly assumes I know them, and without understanding them you can’t truly know what they’re talking about.

Since my goal upon graduating was to never go back to school, we’ll see how persistent I am with this new “learning.”

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Credit Score Rant


I saw a friend post this link on facebook today. This quote basically sums up the post, "I've come to the realization that it's [credit score] complete bullshit."

I’m going to go ahead and second this guy’s thoughts. He lays out a lot of the points I would make myself. Basically, your current credit score, depending on how you handle your money is not an accurate reflection of your credibility as a borrower (not for me anyways). I say this because I have a shitty credit score (low 700’s on two, under 600 on one--and that’s the highest it’s been in years), even though I’m now making and saving more money than I ever have.

I have no student loans, no car loans, I basically don’t owe anyone anything. And that counts against me. The fact that I manage my money responsibly and avoid living beyond my means or accruing debt has done nothing to help my credit score. Black marks on my credit score include: an unpaid $175 early termination fee I refused to pay to Verizon on principle (which I eventually paid anyways), and which was eventually part of a class action lawsuit, which Verizon settled. And the fact that I have no credit cards. Can I get a credit card? Nope. Why? Because my credit score is low. Even my bank, who can see my deposits and the balance I carry, wouldn’t help me with a credit card. Yet, amazingly, I get tons of junk mail offering me credit cards. Which I apply for and get rejected. How am I still on these mailing lists? Idiots.

I've also heard that checking, or having people check your credit score counts as a negative mark against you. So trying to get a credit card is a negative thing, but not having one is also a negative thing? Perfect.

Part of me wants to say “fuck off” to the whole system, never have a credit card, and deal with everything in cash. That part of me is extremely unrealistic and would probably also own a gun, so instead I’m working to fix my credit score. Even though I don’t believe in it and I hate it.

(Full disclosure: I do have a credit card now, because I’m on my wife’s AMEX account. My unemployed wife who has a sparkling credit report and $25k in student loans. If anyone has connections in the education world in NYC, let us know...)

Monday, August 22, 2011

Ex-Employee Draft: The Brooklyn Lions

Tonight, on the heels of a frustrating, three-hour, last-minute meeting at my new job, I had a draft at 9:30pm. Of course, I also had dinner plans with my wife at our friend’s house, so when I arrived at 9pm, shoveled some healthy Mexican casserole into my face, grabbed a glass of wine and their laptop and took a seat to tune out for the next hour, my wife was not pleased. I had also missed the first three picks of the draft, which thankfully were not mine. Not a good start to a night of “investing.”

Approach: Frantic last-minute picking while trying to maintain the appearance of being sociable. No real vision as to the type of team I was building. Poor.

Draft Summary: I had pick number six in the draft and waited until after my first pick to review the draft rules, which let me know this wasn’t a point per reception (PPR) league. Which is unfortunate, since my first pick, Ray Rice, gets a nice bonus in that format. The top five went AP, Vick, Foster, Brady, Charles. So was left with Rice, Chris Johnson or a reach pick, like McFadden or a WR. Rice was the safe pick. On the way back I had no plan, but had waited forever in another draft to take a QB, so I grabbed Rivers. I went WR, WR, TE, WR after that, waiting to grab some value RB’s at the end.

I’m still not sure in what order to take your first five picks. In a format where you MUST play 2 RB, and there’s no PPR, they seem much more valuable and should probably have gone with 2 on my first two picks and waited to grab Matt Ryan or someone a few rounds later. And my gut says, “Don’t take a TE until the end!” Which I promptly ignore as soon as Antonio Gates is off the board.

Best get: My late round RB depth. Beanie Wells in the 7th round. I needed a 2nd RB and with Ryan Williams going down, he’s got a stranglehold in ARI. Reggie Bush in round 9 would be better if this were PPR, but if the Fins really try to make him a RB1 and he holds up, he’s a steal. And then Wells’ former timeshare partner, Tim Hightower in round 11 wasn’t bad for some extra RB depth.

Worst pick: Taking Phillip Rivers made me angry. I guess he’s fine, and when he hits Vincent Jackson for a TD, it’ll give me a great boost. When SD doesn’t score, I’m screwed. I basically punted DEF and Kicker.

Just missed: I really was hoping DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace would fall to me in round 3. They didn’t. I would have been happier with Rice, Nicks/Jackson/Wallace and Matt Ryan. I also put off taking Felix Jones to take Dez Bryant. I wanted Jones, but thought he would fall in round six. I also just missed stealing Javon Ringer by four picks.

Team Outlook: I’m a little too dependant on the Chargers’ offense, and I’ve once again gambled on Dez Bryant and Kenny Britt. If the chargers produce and my young WR’s come through, I should make a good run at the title.

Level of team hatred: 40%, which is actually pretty low. I normally have a high level of self-loathing for my teams. Aside from the Rivers/Jackson back to back picks, I felt really good about who I was getting and where.

Football vs. Finance Outlook: The market was not kind to me today, luckily, I haven’t put the $1000 for this experiment in yet. So my real life investments took a hit, which in-turn kind of makes me feel like I “made money” by not having this $1000 in yet. Due to work and this draft, however, I did not learn anything about stocks or the market. I did read an article about a money market manager while taking a shit, though. I don’t think that counts.